More job seekers give up, reducing unemployment
WASHINGTON – Where did all the workers go?The labor force — those who have a job or are looking for one — is getting smaller, even though the economy is growing and steadily adding jobs. That trend defies the rules of a normal economic recovery.
Nobody is sure why it's happening. Economists think some of the missing workers have retired, have entered college or are getting by on government disability checks. Others have probably just given up looking for work.
"A small work force means millions of discouraged workers, lower output in the future and a weak recovery," says Rep. Kevin Brady of Texas, the ranking Republican on the Congress' Joint Economic Committee. "Those are unhealthy signs."
By the government's definition, if you quit looking, you're no longer counted as unemployed. And you're no longer part of the labor force.
Since November, the number of Americans counted as employed has grown by 765,000, to just shy of 139 million. The nation has been creating jobs every month as the economy recovers. The economy added 244,000 jobs in April.
But the number of Americans counted as unemployed has shrunk by much more — almost 1.3 million — during this time. That means the labor force has dropped by 529,000 workers.
The percentage of adults in the labor force is a figure that economists call the participation rate. It is 64.2 percent, the smallest since 1984. And that's become a mystery to economists. Normally after a recession, an improving economy lures job seekers back into the labor market. This time, many are staying on the sidelines.
Their decision not to seek work means the drop in unemployment from 9.8 percent in November to 9 percent in April isn't as good as it looks.
If the 529,000 missing workers had been out scavenging for a job without success, the unemployment rate would have been 9.3 percent in April, not the reported rate of 9 percent. And if the participation rate were as high as it was when the recession began, 66 percent, in December 2007, the unemployment rate could have been as high as 11.5 percent.
A majority of the 42 economists in the latest Associated Press quarterly economic survey said they expect the labor force participation rate to start growing consistently before the year ends. Twelve don't expect it to happen until next year at the earliest. Five think it never will.
It's certainly not happening yet. The labor force grew by just 15,000 in April from March — not even enough to keep up with population growth.
Economists say many would-be job seekers remain daunted by the odds against finding work: There were 4.3 unemployed people for each job opening in March, more than double the ratio before the recession. And job vacancies are running 35 percent below the pre-recession peak.
"I basically have stopped looking for work because there is just nothing out there," says Kim Rinde of Minneapolis, who was laid off in December 2008 from a customer service job at a company that makes cleaning equipment.
Longer-term trends are working to keep the participation rate down. The Congressional Budget Office expects the participation rate to fall steadily to 63 percent by 2021 as baby boomers retire.
The share of men 20 and older in the labor force peaked long ago, at 89 percent in 1952. It's been falling ever since and is now under 74 percent.
John Bound, a University of Michigan economist, suspects the long-term decline in men's participation is due partly to a drop in job opportunities for workers with few skills. Manufacturing jobs once offered good wages for workers without college degrees. But the number of factory jobs has dropped 40 percent since peaking in 1979.
Some who have left the job market are getting by on government checks, particularly Social Security's program for the disabled More than 8.3 million Americans were on Social Security disability last month, up 1.2 million, or 17 percent, from the end of 2007.
The recipients include people who lost jobs that had allowed them to work despite disabilities and who can't find new employers to accommodate them.
The share of women working or looking for work, after expanding from the early 1950s through the mid '90s, has plateaued at about 60 percent, where it was in April. The CBO notes that more women with high-income husbands and those with young children have been staying out of the job market.
Teenagers have been leaving, too. Their participation rate dropped from a peak of 59.3 percent in 1978 to a record low of 33.5 percent in February. (It ticked up to 33.7 percent in April.) More young people are choosing college or vocational school over work. One reason is that fewer good-paying jobs are available to teenagers right out of high school.
"There was no way I was going straight to work" after high school, says Zachary Simmons, 19, who's studying computers at Surry Community College in North Carolina. "I have to get a degree. That's what gets you in the door for an interview."
1,117 Comments
- 305 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 4 users disliked this commentDontblameme Report Abuse
Just how does the government take a head count of those who are not now included in the unemployed?
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I can understand when people no longer have any unemployment compensation remaining, but beyond that, where do these numbers come from?
Just curious because I am one of them - no UC and burnt out after looking for three years (age, overqualified) but no one sure as hell knows my status other than my family. - 323 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 9 users disliked this commentGeorge Report Abuse
How does the government know these people have "given up"? Fifteen years ago, I was still looking for a job when my unemployment benefits ran out (I was too old, overqualified). As soon as I deposited my last check, I was deemed to have "given up" and was no longer counted.
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And the government was delighted that the official unemployment picture was improving.
What bull! - 86 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 0 users disliked this commentbarney_rubble Report Abuse
Something really wrong with Economy and unemployment rate/numbers
Replies (6)
In May, 38K new private sector jobs. That is for the whole MONTH. Probably only 5-10% of those new jobs are actually employing somebody who was unemployed (if that) ... i.e. mostly somebody switching from another job.
In May, we have 425K NEW claims for unemployment per WEEK.
Gas, Food, etc. prices soaring!
What is the real unemployment and underemployed rate? How are many people who are working keeping their heads above water with rising costs? - 99 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 1 users disliked this commentGary Report Abuse
Better hope if you do get a job that it's next door because with the minimum wages and the price of gas you'll have to walk to work.
Replies (9) - 176 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 5 users disliked this commentBen Report Abuse
There was a study done in April that said, "Nearly two years after the recession officially ended, the unemployment rate remains high at 8.8%. The broader rate of unemployment, which includes people who work part-time but want a full-time job and people who have given up looking for work, was 15.7%, nearly double the official rate." This means that there are approximately 24.44 million people in this country who are currently unemployed or underemployed and the government's economists can't figure out that there's a problem with our economy? Wow!
Replies (9) - 94 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 1 users disliked this commentStinglikeabee Report Abuse
When folks like myself owned their own business and it closed due to the economy....I could not collect unemployment checks, we ran on draws when the money was there and nothing when it was slow...how do I count in all this mess..I don't..I have been looking for work for 2 years now. never received help in the form of a government check, how are they tracking us??? they aren't ...the figures are inaccurate ..there are more folks out of work then they think. just sayin!!!
Replies (6) - 226 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 9 users disliked this commentNowayankee Report Abuse
Same here. I'm 49 and I'm in a catch 22: The Unemployment office told me to my face that i'm not eligible for job training because I'm over 45. You expect me to compete with 16 year olds for a minimum wage job?
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No thanks.
My husbans and I are scraping by on his sicial security, I'm planting a vegetable garden & praying that I don't get sick and the weather allows for a decent crop this year. - 156 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 5 users disliked this commentDavid Report Abuse
The economy added 244,000 jobs in April.
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Sorry guy but the govt just said it was 177,000 jobs - always love guys who dont fact check
and it really shows how the unemployment figures we hear are improving are really just people giving up on working - so much for an "improving economy" - 86 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 3 users disliked this commentjackpine savage Report Abuse
244,000 jobs in April?...On what planet? You guys could write ten different stories on this subject, in ten days, and the numbers would be different for each story. Does truth ever play a factor in what you write?
Reply - 139 users liked this comment Please sign in to rate this comment up. Please sign in to rate this comment down. 8 users disliked this commentMichael Joseph Report Abuse
Want to put millions of American Citizens back to work right away? Demand that OUR government mandate E-verify for all employees and employers. This will open up millions of jobs and the illegal aliens holding them, unable to find work, will self deport.
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